Telangana cliffhanger: Will KCR see through Congress-TDP onslaught? Arithmetic and issues that will decide TRS fate

Telangana elections: K Chandrashekar Rao,
Rahul Gandhi and N. Chandrababu Naidu

Telangana is set to witness a multi-cornered battle in what
will be its first independent assembly elections when the state
votes on December 7. Formed on June 2, 2014, the outcome of 119
assembly constituencies in Telangana will have a bearing on the
17 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. The newly formed state has become a
battleground for K Chandrashekar Rao-led Telangana Rashtra
Samithi (TRS), BJP,
Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Congress
and AIMIM.

Previous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls results:

Of the 17 Lok Sabha seats, TRS got 11 in the 2014 Lok Sabha
polls, Congress bagged 2, TDP 1 seat, AIMIM 1 seat, BJP 1 and
YSRCP 1 seat from Telangana region. In 2014, elections were
held jointly for Andhra Pradesh legislative Assembly election.
In the dissolved assembly, TRS had 63 seats, Congress 21, TDP
15, AIMIM 07, BJP 05, YSRCP 03, CPIM and BSP had 2 members each
and there was a single Independent candidate.

Political arithmetic

Last time the polling was in undivided Andhra Pradesh. However,
after bifurcation TRS was declared as the largest party. The
TRS formed the government in the state and KCR became the Chief
Minister. Polling was scheduled in Telangana in 2019. However,
on September 6, TRS recommended dissolution of the state
assembly 8 months before the culmination of the term.
Subsequently, KCR, who formed TRS in 2001 for the sole purpose
of pitching for separate Telangana state, announced that his
party will contest the election alone. The intent was clear as
TRS announced candidates for 105 assembly constituencies barely
hours after the dissolution.

The Congress has announced that it would form an alliance with
the TDP, the Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS) and the Communist
Party of India (CPI) to fight the upcoming Assembly polls. The
alliance has been given the name of “Prajakutami”. BJP has
decided to go alone.

If we take a look at the previous assembly results, TRS alone
had 63 seats. If we combine seats won by Congress and TDP, it
will take them to 36 which will fall short of magical 60 seats.
However, Congress and TDP had a total vote share of 40 per cent
which is bettern than TRS’ 34 per cent. The coming together of
these twom parties can dent KCR and TRS’ prospects. However,
TDP last fought election as a an allaince partner with BJP.

Another key issue is that the YSR Congress Party has decided
not to contest the Telangana polls. Everyone is eyeing the
seats won by YSRCP in 2014 in this region.

Major issues

India’s youngest state has a population of 3, 51, 93, 978.
Among the state’s population, the state has 54.09 lakh
Scheduled Caste population and 31.78 lakh Scheduled Tribes, as
per 2011 population Census.

The BJP, on its part, promised to put a regulation on the
liquor sale. It has also promised several populist measures to
woo voters like complete waiver of tax on petrol and diesel,
cheap drinking water and lowering bus ticket prices during
festivals. The incumbent TRS promised a farm loan waiver of Rs
1 lakh and increased the sum assistance given under the Rythu
Bandhu scheme.

Opinion Poll

As per C Voter’s opinion poll, Congress-alliance would bag 64
seats, TRS would win 42 seats, others will emerge victorious in
13 seats. According to the opinion poll conducted by the Team
Flash and VDA Associates, TRS will win 85 out of 117 assembly
constituencies, Congress will bag 18 seats, AIMIM will bag
seven and BJP to get paltry 5 seats.

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